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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from various governments. Immense energy is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability afforded by current data. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.

Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense thundered: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon fired at a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, endure.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Assessment and Future

It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.

While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on continued Western support.